Fin ministry eyes Russia’s GDP growth at 3.1%/year in 2020–2036

MOSCOW, Apr 1 (PRIME) -- Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will speed up and stabilize at around 3.1% per year in 2020–2036, the Finance Ministry said in a budget forecast until 2036 released on Monday.

Under Russia’s baseline scenario of social and economic development, on which the budget forecast was based, global economic growth will fall to 3.2% until 2024 and to below 3% after 2024.

“Such a decrease coupled with expansion of power saving technologies and expansion of alternative power sources consumption will lead to a graduate cooling of demand for energy. The oil price will stabilize at U.S. $52–53 per barrel in 2025–2030 with an ensuing moderate increase of the U.S. dollar inflation,” the document read.

Dependency of the Russian economy on fluctuations in oil prices will continue to fall if the existing macroeconomic policy remains, including a free ruble rate, inflation targeting, budget rules, and operations with foreign currency. External and internal economic factors will increase growth of Russia’s GDP and maintain it at about 3.1% in 2020–2036, the budget forecast read.

Fixed capital investment will support the dynamics, rising by 4.5% in 2020–2036, or jumping by 7.6% in 2020 and slowing down to 3% in 2036. The share of capital investment in Russia’s GDP will rise from 22.2% in 2018 to 26.8% in 2032–2036, according to the document.

Under the Economic Development Ministry’s forecast, Russia’s GDP will increase by 1.3% in 2019, by 2% in 2020, and by 3.1% in 2021.

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